Turn every win and loss into a lesson by fielding outcomes deliberately

Medium - Requires some preparation Recommended

You nail a presentation and feel invincible—only to miss a crucial question in the Q&A and slump out of the room. Or you lose a big bet on a stock that just cratered. Both feel like big verdicts on your ability: a flattering poster-boy moment or a bitter shameful one. You may never stop riding the high or reliving the low.

But poker pros know better. They call the act of blaming every bad outcome on bad luck, or crowning every win as sheer skill, “resulting.” It’s an unconscious habit: our brain magnifies recent ticks up or down in the wealth or scoreboard and calls that decision quality when we know deep down it was only one part of the story. We’re expert at zero-sum bookkeeping: “I lost—therefore I must’ve played poorly; I won—therefore I’m a genius.”

What if you treated every outcome like it was 20% luck, 80% skill (or vice versa)? That forced split makes you stop and see what really happened. A simple rating system jolts you out of reactive drama and into an attitude of forensic interest: “What played a real role here?” You start seeing patterns: your skill gaps get sharper, and you stop lashing out at “unfair” fortune. Over time, the noise fades, and you get cleaner signals to guide your next move.

When you mindfully label every win or loss for what it really was—a cocktail of talent, preparation, random chance—you turn distractions into data. And data, unlike emotion, keeps you growing.

Next time you celebrate or fume, take a breath and ask, “How much of this was in my control?” Pin it to a percentage, then write a sentence on why you picked that number. One week later, revisit your note. You’ll see your split was off—and that’s golden information. Each recalibrated rating is a quiet step toward clearer insight, less drama, and decisions that actually improve.

What You'll Achieve

You’ll build resilience and compassion for yourself, seeing wins and losses as signals to learn instead of verdicts on your worth. You’ll steadily improve skills by using outcome data more objectively, reducing emotional overreactions.

Assign luck or skill to every result

1

Capture every outcome

After key meetings, games, or projects, list what went right and what went wrong. Don’t just file it away—get it down on paper within 24 hours.

2

Bet on cause

For each item, ask yourself: Was this luck or skill? Rate each from 10% to 90% caused by personal choice, with the rest chance. Force yourself to pick a number.

3

Revisit the bets

One week later, check your ratings. Did new information show you misascribed luck or blame? Adjust your future bets accordingly.

Reflection Questions

  • What recent event would you rate 100% skill—does it hold up?
  • When have you blamed bad luck to avoid tough self-feedback?
  • How can you schedule a one-week follow-up to check your initial ratings?

Personalization Tips

  • After a family vacation, separate what you controlled (packing) from what you couldn’t (flight delays).
  • When you break a Monday gym streak, rate how much was willpower versus bad sleep.
  • If you hit a model home run, decide if it was batting skill or a lucky pitch.
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke 2018
Insight 5 of 8

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