Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Unlock uncertainty to outthink luck and avoid common decision traps

Annie Duke

2018

8 Key Insights

About This Book

Life rarely hands us all the facts, yet every day we must make decisions that shape our future. By treating choices as bets, this guide shows you how to separate luck from skill, build confidence around uncertainty, and learn faster from every outcome. You’ll discover how to map out multiple possible futures, recruit your past and future selves to improve your instincts, and even set precommitment traps that keep you on track. With clear examples, engaging stories, and step-by-step exercises, you’ll transform overwhelm into calm, stray judgments into objective insights, and second-guessing into winning strategies.

About the Author

Annie Duke is a former World Series of Poker champion and decision strategist who parlayed two decades of high-stakes tournament experience into teaching executives, investors, and leaders how to make sharper choices. A sought-after speaker, she blends cognitive psychology, game theory, and real-world stories to show how we all can learn to think probabilistically. Annie holds a master’s in cognitive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania and has guided Fortune 500 teams in transforming luck and uncertainty into competitive edges.

Biggest Takeaway

You’ll learn to spot hidden biases that lead to costly mistakes, get comfortable admitting “I’m not sure” without losing confidence, and build a small circle of truth-seeking allies. You’ll make better use of outcomes—good and bad—by separating decision quality from sheer luck. You’ll anticipate pitfalls and opportunities by working backward from both success and failure. And you’ll lock in smarter habits and avoid emotional detours with simple precommitment tactics.

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