A five-part stress test that kills weak business ideas fast

Two friends, Sam and Lila, each wanted to leave their jobs. Sam loved coffee, so he rushed to lease a storefront and open a café. Lila ran her idea through a five‑part stress test. She listed the exact problem, checked how hard it would be for copycats to enter, mapped the places she didn’t control, drew the path from one customer to a thousand, and forced herself to unhook revenue from her own hours.

Six months later, Sam’s days started at 5:00 a.m. He smelled like espresso, argued with suppliers, and watched margins evaporate with every discount. A mild drizzle on a Thursday could wipe out his morning foot traffic. Lila, meanwhile, launched a subscription snack box for office kitchens. She negotiated exclusive local treats, sold annual contracts, and made delivery routes once a week. Her phone buzzed on Tuesdays with auto‑renew notices while she was at her kid’s soccer game sipping lukewarm tea.

Sam had Need, but Entry was low—three new cafés opened nearby. He had little Control, relying on a delivery app and a landlord. Scale was hard in a single location, and Time was fully attached to him. Lila nailed Need (office managers hated weekly supply runs), added Entry moats (exclusive partners), diversified Control (direct sales and multiple vendors), built Scale (routes and referrals), and detached Time (subscriptions and drivers).

The point isn’t that cafés are bad, it’s that models win or lose before launch. The NECST filter compresses years of struggle into a single page of honest thinking. Cognitive science calls this premortem planning—the act of imagining failure to prevent it. Strategy becomes less romantic and more about designing a game you can actually win.

Grab a sheet of paper and score your idea on Need, Entry, Control, Scale, and Time. If Need is vague, talk to five buyers before noon. If Entry is low, plan your moat—exclusivity, brand, or a capability curve others won’t climb. Note platform risks and sketch a plan B. Outline how one customer becomes a thousand and where hours must come out of delivery. If revenue dies when you rest, change the model before you build. Do this now, then pick the weakest area to strengthen this week.