Embrace rare events to thrive on chance

No one saw the 2008 meltdown coming—trillions evaporated overnight, and even the brightest economists were blindsided. Meanwhile Netflix quietly tested streaming in 2007. That tiny experiment gave it a decades-long head start.

These are Black Swans: extreme surprises that fundamentally reshape the landscape. Some sting, some soar—but by definition, they lie outside everyday forecasts.

Why do we miss them? Because our brains crave stable patterns. We build models for linear growth, then mutter “should have seen it” when the curve explodes or collapses. Yet in reality, non-linear jumps are common—in technology adoption, viral trends or supply shocks.

The key isn’t predicting each one; it’s placing a few strategic bets and guarding against the worst. Keep most resources in steady assets, but reserve a tiny share for improbable gambles. Then stress-test both sides of the wager. You’ll sleep better knowing one small wildcard can transform your future—or avert disaster.

Black Swans demand paradoxical planning: expect the unexpected by preparing for extremes, not just averages.

You can’t forecast Black Swans, but you can profit—or at least survive—when they strike. First, jot down the few one-in-a-hundred events that could sink you, from market crashes to unexpected laws. Next, seed a tiny sliver of your resources into upside bets that would skyrocket if they pay off. Finally, run extreme “what if?” drills for each scenario and draft rapid-response playbooks. This two-pronged approach lets you sleep easy: you’re ready to thrive on surprise rather than dread it.