Don’t be dazzled by the few who succeed
Rick loved guitar heroes, every front-page magazine featured them, and he thought his own strumming was next level. So he formed a band, booked studio time, and rehearsed nightly. In a local bar, he played his heart out—only a handful turned up and even fewer clapped.
Undeterred, Rick reread every rock memoir he could find, convinced a secret formula existed. Yet each new book only sang the praises of successful superstars. He never put in the work to uncover the 10,000 bands that never made it past a garage gig.
One evening, a friend showed him a blog post titled ‘The 200 Bands You’ve Never Heard Of’. Rick’s jaw dropped—he’d never imagined there were millions of equally talented musicians who failed.
Later, while deciding whether to invest savings in studio time or a new day job, Rick remembered that blog post. He realised focusing only on the visible few had warped his estimates of success. From then on, he dug up failure stories first, giving himself a sobering dose of realism.
You scan your glossy industry magazines and feel that ‘anyone can do it’—but you’re smarter than that. Start by researching ten failures in your field, then adjust your chances of success by including every flop, not just the winners. Finally, keep a ‘failure list’ on your desktop; every time you consider a new venture, cross-check it against those misfires. You’ll end up with realistic odds, clearer priorities and far fewer embarrassing blind spots. Give it a try today.
What You'll Achieve
You’ll learn to spot survivorship bias in your estimates, adjust probabilities based on real failure rates and make more realistic, data-driven decisions.
Dig deeper with hidden cases
Research failures first
Spend at least ten minutes listing examples of projects, careers or products that didn’t make it, so you see the full picture instead of just the winners.
Adjust your odds
Whenever you estimate success probability, divide by the total number of attempts (including all failures) to avoid overconfidence.
Maintain a failure list
Keep a running log—‘graveyard’—of experiments and ventures that flopped so you can cross-check new ideas against past mistakes.
Reflection Questions
- Which success stories did you consider without checking how many failures went unreported?
- How would your choices change if you added a dozen failure cases to your decision process?
- What small ‘graveyard’ of failures can you start today to balance your view of success?
Personalization Tips
- Before funding a hot start-up, jot down ten that ran out of cash and closed within three years.
- If you think you can write a bestseller, read five unpublished manuscripts in drawers to see how rare success truly is.
- Talk to friends who have switched careers and struggled—their stories will remind you how hard it is to break through.
The Art of Thinking Clearly
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