Tomorrow Never Comes The Affective Forecasting Illusion

Imagine you decide now: “I’ll start my project tomorrow morning.” You feel positive, relieved, and ambitious. Yet when dawn arrives, you’re bleary-eyed and resist logging in. Why the mismatch?

Psychologists call this error affective forecasting. We underestimate how context and random events—traffic jams, surprise emails, a late night—will shape our future emotions. We focus on our current optimism (focalism) and ignore reality’s twists (presentism). I might be wrong, but most of us have felt this cheat: today’s “tomorrow” always stays just out of reach.

Studies show lottery winners aren’t happier after years, and accident survivors recover their baseline mood. We consistently misforecast because our brains simplify future scenarios. When we set intentions under a halo of relief, we ignore that we’ll feel less eager later.

By learning about affective forecasting, you can time-travel mentally. Vivid future imagery paired with concrete cues rewires that optimism bias. It’s not magic—it’s science of mind and motivation.

First, close your eyes tonight and imagine how you’ll feel at tomorrow’s task hour, including sights and feelings. Then list past ‘tomorrow I’ll do it’ moments and their real outcomes. Next, build a plan: “If it’s 6 pm tomorrow, I’ll start for ten minutes.” Finally, track forecast vs. reality in a simple journal. Give it a try tonight.