Don’t leave before you leave plan boldly, then decide with facts

Many people scale back years before any child or parent needs care. They turn down stretch work “just in case,” and by the time life changes arrive, the job is less engaging and the pay lower. Then the trade‑off skews further toward stepping out. It feels rational in the moment, but it’s often a trap set by time inconsistency and loss aversion.

Economists would tell you to calculate total costs and options at the decision point, not years early. Future earnings growth, flexibility increases with seniority, and re‑entry penalties after a long gap all matter more than today’s salary. Behavioral science adds that when we fear a constraint, we pre‑constrain ourselves to reduce anxiety. It’s understandable, and it’s costly.

A micro‑anecdote: one analyst turned down a lead role a year before trying to conceive and spent two bored years waiting. When she finally returned after leave, she felt detached and left. Another took the lead role, loved it, and came back after leave because the work was energizing, not because it was easy.

The practical approach is simple. Say yes to high‑learning roles before caregiving begins. Compare childcare costs to your future income path and flexibility, not just current cash. Sketch a re‑entry plan now so you have a path when you need it: people to keep close, skills to keep warm, and a project worth returning to. Make the real decision when reality arrives, using fresh data and a menu of options.

Choose growth now if caregiving is in your future by taking the stretch assignment that deepens skills and visibility. Run numbers that include future earnings, flexibility, and re‑entry penalties, not just today’s childcare costs. Draft a one‑page re‑entry plan—contacts to maintain, skills to keep current, and a project you’ll want to return to—so you’re not deciding in a fog. Promise yourself you’ll make the actual call when life changes arrive, not years early. Put 20 minutes on your calendar to sketch that plan.