Make the call when the perfect data will never arrive

Waiting for perfect information feels responsible, but it often signals fear. The world rarely hands over certainty, especially when time matters. A useful lens is to sort choices into two buckets: two‑way doors you can back through with small cost, and one‑way doors that are hard to reverse. The former rewards speed and learning, the latter deserves deliberate checks.

A small business debated whether to pilot Saturday hours. They argued for weeks. Framed as a two‑way door, they defined minimum information to start—a volunteer staff schedule and a simple revenue target—and a two‑week review tripwire. They opened, learned they needed one more coffee machine, and kept what worked. Later, when considering selling the business, a one‑way decision, they slowed down, ran a premortem, invited a skeptical advisor to red‑team their plan, and set clear walk‑away conditions.

This balances cognitive biases. By defining minimal required information, you avoid analysis paralysis. Tripwires fight escalation of commitment, and defaulting aggressive on reversible decisions captures option value. For one‑way choices, structured dissent and premortems generate the missing objections your brain prefers not to see. You won’t have perfect data, but you’ll have enough to act wisely and adjust quickly.

Sort your upcoming calls into two‑way and one‑way doors. For two‑way doors, define the two or three facts you need, set a short review date, and move now so you can learn in the real world. For one‑way doors, slow down, convene a red‑team or run a premortem to surface risks, and write clear tripwires that will trigger a stop if crossed. Favor action where it’s safe to fail, and favor rigor where it’s not. Use this filter on your next decision list.