Your threat radar is lying sometimes—defuse the Blue Dot Effect

When people were shown fewer blue dots, they started calling purple dots blue. The mind keeps its quota of threats, even when threats decline. Swap dots for headlines and you see the problem: as some dangers shrink, our perception quietly expands to fill the gap. It feels like vigilance, but it’s often distortion.

You feel it at work: a short email pings your phone, and your pulse jumps. You label it a 7 out of 10, then take a walk. An hour later, you ask for clarity and find out the sender was rushing between meetings. In your neighborhood group chat, a rumor spirals into fear. You pause, check a base rate, and learn the event is rare. The fear eases. A micro‑anecdote: last month you shared an alarming post, then learned it was misleading. Embarrassing. This month you apply a 24‑hour rule. Nothing breaks.

I might be wrong, but this is how you recalibrate. Track the ‘alarms’ so they’re visible. Tie emotions to base rates so your Feeling Brain has something solid to hold. Pick two issues to engage deeply and let the rest pass without guilt. You’re not ignoring the world; you’re preventing your threat quota from expanding to swallow your day.

Psychologically, this is countering availability bias and prevalence‑induced concept change—the tendency to see more of what we look for. Simple guardrails—base rates, waiting periods, constrained focus—lower false alarms without making you numb.

For the next week, jot each flare of outrage or fear and rate it, then look up a base rate so your feelings can land on something steady. Give yourself a 24‑hour buffer before big posts or decisions, and choose two issues to care about deeply this month while letting the rest slide. You’ll feel calmer and oddly more effective. Try logging your first alarm today.