Prepare for success and failure by mapping future extremes

When the product-launch team at AeroFlow delivered their first drone prototypes on time, they felt invincible—until orders started piling in and the warehouse ran dry. If only they’d run through a premortem: “It’s post-launch disaster,” they’d imagined, listing supply disruptions and untrained pilots as the main culprits. In a parallel preparade exercise, they envisioned wild success, with military contracts flooding in and global media acclaim. By ranking the threats highest—out-of-stock parts—and the boosters—priority contracts—they redesigned their rollout. They signed a backup supplier for critical components (their ‘safety factor’) and launched a pilot-training webinar to boost early adoption. As a result, AeroFlow weathered surging demand without a hiccup and secured a follow-on order worth three times their initial estimate. Bookending the future—preparing for both failure and triumph—turned their panic-stricken scramble into a smooth takeoff.

Next time you have a big decision, gather your team and imagine you’ve just bombed. List the top two reasons why, then imagine you’re heroes at a parade. Rank the threats to block and the boosters to amplify. Draft a one-sentence plan to insulate against the worst and seize the best. That’s all it takes to bookend your future.