Rethinking Success: Why Winners Aren’t Always Talented and Failure is Often Invisible

It’s tempting to believe that success always rewards the best and the brightest—that every superstar actor, CEO, or scientist must have a unique edge. Behavioral science, however, finds that in fields driven by rare, Extreme events (Extremistan), success nearly always involves a hefty dose of luck, as much as or more than skill. For every ‘winner’ we see, there are hundreds who did almost the same things but failed due to timing, unnoticed obstacles, or plain randomness.

Worse, we only ever hear the stories of the survivors; the people who gave it their all and missed by a hair remain invisible. This creates a dangerous illusion: attributing every win to hard work or clever tactics, missing the sea of others who worked just as hard, made similar choices, and simply weren’t picked by luck. Whether in business, the arts, or school, real understanding comes by comparing the visible winners, the invisible losses, and asking what both have in common.

Learning from this insight doesn’t mean quitting or refusing to try. It means creating realistic expectations, preparing emotionally for both outcomes, and remembering that no single story explains it all.

Any time you’re tempted to copy a successful person or plan, pause and search for at least two stories of failure in the same field. Ask directly: ‘Did others try this exact formula and still fail?’ Learn from the details of unseen losses, adjust your risk-taking decisions accordingly, and remember that luck—good or bad—is always part of the game, especially in fields where only a handful can win.