Counterfeit Consensus: How the ‘Magnetic Middle’ Can Sabotage Change Efforts

A classic backfire: a utility company mails homeowners a letter comparing their energy use to neighborhood averages. Those using too much start saving, but to everyone’s shock, the super-savers start consuming more—drawn invisibly back to the 'magnetic middle.' Psychologists call this social norms drift, or regression to the mean, and it can sabotage well-meant change campaigns.

To fix this, researchers added something small but profound: alongside the comparison, they gave smiley faces to high performers, signaling that society truly valued their extra effort. Suddenly, super-savers kept their habits, and over-users improved. The same lesson applies anywhere averages are publicized: unintentional signals about the 'normal' behavior can convince positive outliers to do less, unless you affirm them explicitly.

This phenomenon is subtle but far-reaching, affecting school performance, health habits, attendance, and even company change initiatives. Without careful design, the power of social proof can accidentally flatten peaks instead of raising everyone’s game. Counter with targeted praise for outliers—sometimes a single smiley face is all it takes.

Before you broadcast the team’s average or majority behavior, look closely at who’s excelling—as well as who’s lagging. Where possible, pair your norm messaging with explicit, public praise for positive deviants, using symbols or awards to say, 'We value more than just average.' This keeps your stars motivated and helps everyone else set sights higher, not just in the middle. Try this dual approach in your next team report, classroom update, or community campaign.