Don’t Fall for Random Streaks—Why Your Brain Sees Patterns Where None Exist

In the thick of a basketball game, the crowd roars every time a player lands a string of shots, convinced the athlete is 'on fire.' The belief in streaks, or 'hot hands,' is emotionally gripping. But when scientists sifted through years of pro basketball statistics, a surprise emerged: players were just as likely to miss after a streak of hits as after misses. The pattern was a mirage. The same error appears when students try to guess quiz answers, investors try to time the market, or shoppers swear their lucky numbers are onto something big.

Why do smart minds make this mistake? Deep inside, our dopamine neurons crave predictability, reward, and the thrill of discovery. When faced with randomness—like a coin flip or the bounce of a basketball—they search for meaning where there truly isn’t any. In one study, even rats outperformed Yale undergrads in a task where placing food was random: the animals simply went for the higher probability location every time, while the students wasted effort looking for patterns that didn’t exist.

Learning to recognize—and challenge—the illusion of streaks is a crucial step toward better decisions in everything from sports to investing to daily choices. The urge to spot patterns is ancient, but it doesn’t always serve you in the modern world.

Next time you feel certain a streak is forming, stop and ask how much of that belief is grounded in hope, anxiety, or excitement rather than data. Take a deliberate moment to tally outcomes—whether quiz results, game wins, or market swings—and see if there’s any real foundation to your hunch. Challenge your brain’s love affair with patterns and keep a journal of so-called streaks for a week; you might find that most are random after all. By practicing skepticism in small ways, you’ll start to guard against impulsive leaps in much bigger decisions.