Why Most Experts Miss Disruptions and How You Can See Ahead
Throughout history, experts have made confident forecasts about the limits of technology—often missing how exponential growth bends those limits. In the 1980s, top consultants told major phone companies that mobile phones would remain a niche luxury; by 2000, there were hundreds of millions in use. McKinsey’s iconic miscalculation for AT&T is now a lesson in how linear mindsets can stifle opportunity. This pattern is visible in many domains: analysts routinely predict modest rises where technologies are actually about to explode. People watching the Human Genome Project panicked when it was only 1% complete after seven years, claiming it would take centuries, but they failed to spot the exponential pace hidden behind small early numbers—the curve soon doubled past all expectations.
Instead of trusting the usual predictions that things will get only a little better each year, pause and ask: are there areas in your school, workplace, or community where the numbers seem to leap rather than climb? Jot down those cases, question any forecast that assumes the future looks much like the past, and notice places where something is becoming drastically cheaper or faster than ever before. The next time you see a new device or service emerge seemingly overnight, recognize that it probably followed hidden exponential growth long before crossing your radar. Give yourself this sight advantage—it will help you surf innovations, not get caught behind the wave.
What You'll Achieve
By internalizing this insight, you'll develop a sharper radar for innovation, avoid betting on outdated information, and react quicker to opportunities. This cultivates resilience, curiosity, and a habit of questioning the status quo, making you a better decision-maker in any fast-changing field.
Spot Hidden Exponential Trends Around You
Identify trends with rapid doubling.
Look at changes in your industry or technology—rather than focusing on small annual increases, check if anything is multiplying, like the growth of digital devices or user numbers. Write down two examples you notice daily.
Challenge linear predictions.
Whenever you hear forecasts (e.g., from news, reports, or authorities), ask yourself if these are based on past slow growth. Reflect on areas where progress could accelerate unexpectedly.
Track digital cost drops.
Pay attention to how fast costs are falling in technology or services you use—like storage, DNA sequencing, or 3D printing. Note one example where something became 10x cheaper or faster in your field.
Reflection Questions
- Where in your life do you see change happening slowly versus suddenly?
- Do you rely on experts' predictions, or do you look for your own signs of rapid progress?
- How do you feel when something you thought was stable gets disrupted?
- What is one area you could start tracking for exponential trends today?
Personalization Tips
- A high school student notices their phone's camera updates every year, offering features once found only in professional gear.
- A nurse recognizes how remote monitoring devices for patients have dropped in price and size, making at-home care possible.
- A small business owner recalls when online marketing tools were too expensive but now can run campaigns for free.
Exponential Organizations: Why New Organizations Are Ten Times Better, Faster, Cheaper Than Yours (and What To Do About It)
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