The Power Law: Just a Few Outcomes Will Drive Almost All Your Results
Across businesses, creative pursuits, and personal habits, a little-recognized law shapes success: the ‘power law.’ Rather than results being evenly distributed, it turns out that just a handful of actions or investments produce the vast majority of rewards—whether measured in profits, impact, or satisfaction.
Venture investors have seen this play out for decades. Out of hundreds of projects or startups, sometimes only one or two will deliver more returns than all the rest combined, often by factors of ten or even a hundred. The pattern holds across creative fields, sports, and even friendships; just a few moments or connections will change your life most dramatically.
What most people get wrong is trying to optimize everything or treating each new effort as equally important. By recognizing outliers and focusing more energy on what’s already working far beyond the norm, you create compounding value and motivation. Behavioral science and big data confirm it: identifying and doubling down on the rare winners is more effective than striving for incremental improvements everywhere else.
It’s not about giving up on learning from failure—those lessons matter. But the power law says your future will be shaped most by your few most extraordinary bets.
Look back through your recent work, studies, or projects and mark which ones have led to the biggest actual or potential gains. Don’t get lost in averages—identify the exceptions. Channel more of your attention and resources into these high-return areas, even if they mean leaving lesser outcomes behind. Accept that some efforts won’t blossom, and use those lessons to refine your next set of bets. Remember, extraordinary success often isn’t spread out—it’s concentrated in what few others see. Don’t be afraid to focus there.
What You'll Achieve
Concentrate your energy for exponential returns; avoid burnout from spreading yourself thin; grow more comfortable with both outsized wins and frequent failures.
Track and Double Down on Outlier Successes
Review past projects and outcomes for unexpected outliers.
Look at your efforts in school, work, or personal projects and identify which produced disproportionate results—more recognition, profit, satisfaction, or learning than the rest.
Choose to invest extra energy in high-leverage winners.
Don’t spread yourself thin. Shift more resources—attention, time, support—toward the few endeavors that show extraordinary promise or traction.
Accept that most efforts will fail or yield little; focus learning from them.
Don’t get discouraged by the many unremarkable results. Treat them as experiments that clear the way for the rare, compounding wins.
Reflection Questions
- What are my past 1–3 breakthrough moments or projects?
- Am I overinvesting in areas that are unlikely to yield big results?
- How will I spot the next outlier, and what will I do to support it?
- How can I accept failure or small returns in most efforts without losing momentum?
Personalization Tips
- In creative writing: Notice if one story resonates much more than others, and build on it.
- In sales: Focus on a handful of customers who generate the most referrals or revenue.
- In academics: Identify classes or projects where you consistently outperform, and seek ways to deepen your involvement there.
The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future
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