New Markets Can't Be Predicted—But They Can Be Discovered Together

You may have read glowing market analyst reports predicting a revolution in wearable tech this year. Maybe you even built a spreadsheet expecting your new app or product to find hundreds of eager customers by launch. It's easy to believe—the numbers sound authoritative, and everyone else is buzzing about what's coming next.

But how often do these forecasts ring true? In reality, most new markets form in unpredictable fits and starts. Early users rarely behave exactly as planned. Good teams come to see their work as less like aiming an arrow and more like hiking a winding, foggy trail with a good compass and lots of curiosity.

The key is switching gears: planning for discovery rather than pretending you already know the path. You'll break your big idea into a handful of smaller experiments, treating each as a chance to learn about real-world reactions. You might find your app delights a group you never considered, or that the feature you loved is rarely used—but another aspect is surprisingly sticky.

Behavioral science confirms that discovery-driven planning not only reduces costly mistakes, it builds resilience and confidence. Over time, you’ll learn not to fear dead ends, but to value each one as a stepping stone closer to what actually works.

Start by jotting down your best guesses about your new market, but then bravely admit what you just don’t know. Use each experiment or launch not as a test of your worth, but as a way to discover where real value lies—and reward your team for uncovering the truth, even if it’s uncomfortable. Make failure cheap, and tie each round of work to a learning goal. This is a shift, but once you commit to the habit of small learning steps, your chances of long-term discovery and real impact multiply. Give yourself permission to learn in public and see where it leads this quarter.