Direct and Information Marketing: Small Bets, Fast Feedback, and the Power of Testing Over Expert Guessing

Joe Sugarman, with a failing calculator-by-mail business, avoided disaster not by getting more creative but by reading his own results. Instead of sending ads to everyone everywhere, he tried ten different mailing lists. Eight failed badly, but two delivered amazing results. By focusing only on these, he transformed a sinking business into a tidal wave—and outpaced mainstream retail giants almost overnight.

This pattern holds true in nearly every case: the lesson isn’t to 'never fail,' but to treat every test as a low-risk probe, where the data you get is worth more than your assumptions or even the cost of the attempt. 'A/B testing'—comparing two ads, two prices, or two headlines—is a staple in direct marketing because it replaces intuition with proof.

Behaviorally, testing protects against decision bias and overconfidence. The market is the laboratory, and action—followed by measurement—is the only way to turn uncertainty into knowledge that pays.

Don’t get stuck endlessly planning. Launch a tiny, manageable campaign this week, whether it’s a Facebook ad, a sales email, or a phone call to ten prospects with three scripts. Measure every interaction, result, or reply—even silence counts. When you see a winner, invest more in promoting it; drop or adjust what doesn’t work and try again. Treat each test as valuable feedback, not personal failure. Your fortune grows one experiment at a time.