When Being a Contrarian Is the Key to Lasting Advantage

In the 1990s, two students believed that online search was far from finished, even though everyone else thought it was a solved problem. Their idea that relevance could trump raw information was dismissed repeatedly. Today, we know them as Google’s founders, but at the time, their belief was oddly lonely. Their determination—bolstered by data and iteration—allowed them to pursue a business model others ignored.

Research in behavioral economics shows that most people overestimate group consensus and underweight unexplored opportunities (the wisdom of crowds—except when the crowd overlooks key truths). Psychologist Peter Thiel famously asks, “What important truth do very few people agree with you on?” This mindset often leads to the greatest rewards: the trick is not just going against the grain for the sake of it, but having evidence and conviction to back your view—while remaining open to new data. In highly competitive arenas, first-mover and contrarian advantage often overlap; the bold, but not the reckless, win.

Ask yourself: Is there an idea, approach, or need I spot that rarely gets support in my circles? Dive into research, debate with trusted skeptics, and look for evidence whether you might actually be right—and not just different. If so, design a small experiment or project to test your view in practice. By confidently, but humbly, following your own findings, you set yourself up for deeper insight—or, sometimes, discover firsthand why the crowd was wrong to ignore an opportunity. Make a habit of challenging consensus when your gut and groundwork say it’s worth it.