Why Most People Miss the Explosive Power of Exponential Change—Until It’s Too Late

On a rainy morning, the local library hosts a public tech talk. A teacher listens as the presenter shows two lines on a chart: one slopes gently upwards, the other starts slow and suddenly rockets skyward. The teacher wrinkles her brow as the speaker explains that humans, shaped by millennia in a world where progress meant walking longer or finding sharper stones, naturally expect the future to look like the past—steady, predictable. But then he describes Kodak, a company once untouchable, brought down not by a rival but by its own neglected technology. The first digital cameras were underwhelming—black and white, horribly pixelated, slow to save an image. They looked like a curiosity, not a competitor.

But the math of doubling—going from 0.01 to 0.02 to 0.04—deceives the eye. The crowd in the library murmurs as the presenter describes how, seemingly overnight, a “toy” camera matched and then outpaced film, while Kodak’s directors assumed the threat was decades away. By the time digital went mainstream, their business had evaporated.

The lesson lands hard: exponential change feels as if nothing is happening, then everything changes at once. Social media, biotech, AI, smartphones—it’s the same story: a long deceptive phase, then sudden, industry-shaking explosion. Understanding this pattern is critical—not only to avoid being caught off-guard, but to surf new waves early.

Behavioral science calls this our 'local and linear' bias, a mental shortcut that once kept us safe but now slows our ability to spot game-changing trends. Cognitive psychologists suggest intentionally searching for outlier patterns: times when change is weirdly abrupt, or when a previously complex tool suddenly feels easy.

Start by drawing a simple graph comparing linear and exponential growth—seeing the difference helps make it real. Then, take a look at two industries experiencing rapid versus slow change, and focus on how quickly new technologies went from niche to normal. Finally, put tech news on your regular reading list, paying attention to tools that suddenly get user-friendly. By sharpening your eye for exponential leaps and new interfaces, you put yourself ahead of the curve, ready to spot opportunities and adapt before everyone else. Give it a try on your next commute or study session.