Navigating Industry Evolution: How Change and Life Cycles Upset the Strongest Strategies

The classic 'product life cycle' model says every field and market moves from introduction, to growth, maturity, and eventually decline—but each journey is unique, with timings and patterns no one can predict perfectly. Consider how film cameras were long dominant, with strong brands and economies of scale; then, almost overnight, digital disruption tumbled established leaders who failed to adapt. In other industries, such as soft drinks or tire manufacturing, decades of stability were suddenly challenged by health trends, regulatory shifts, or breakthroughs in substitutes.

This pattern isn’t destiny—it’s shaped by forces like demographic changes, buyer learning, breakthroughs in technology, or changes adjacent industries trigger. Strategic thinkers obsess over these signals not because they can stop evolution but because early awareness protects against nasty surprises and opens the way to new opportunities. The cognitive bias known as 'status quo bias' makes us slow to challenge routines, but neuroscience has proven that consistently scanning for change rewires the brain for adaptability and resilience. In practice, it's those who recognize and act on these shifts before rivals who usually reap disproportionate rewards.

Spend a few minutes mapping your industry's current life cycle stage and jot down clear markers—are there new players coming in, is growth still fast, or have things started slowing? Stay alert to signals of coming change, like new tech, law shifts, or changing demands. Set yourself a simple calendar check-in every quarter: do your key strengths and vulnerabilities still hold, or has something major shifted? Small, regular tune-ups mean you won’t get blindsided and can move before the crowd.