How to Use Competitor Analysis to Predict Moves—and Make Yours Hard to Predict

A regional coffee chain, Maple Roasters, watched its giant rival roll out identical flavors and price cuts every summer. But Maple’s founders realized the bigger competitor assumed they could be outspent into submission. Instead of matching discounts, Maple doubled down on creative local collaborations and unusual seasonal drinks—things their rival wouldn’t risk. By tracking news, social media, and team member talk, they spotted each time the rival was slow to respond or stuck to their old playbook. Maple’s team even noted what their rival seemed to believe: that Maple 'would never challenge them outside weekends.' In meetings, they asked, 'Where’s the blind spot? Where will they be slow to notice?'

Tracking a rival's goals, beliefs, and routines helps you predict how they'll move—and, sometimes, how to fly under their radar. This tactic works whether you're a business, a sports team, or a club leader. When you notice where others expect you to zig, you can zag. In psychology, this is the foundation of competitive intelligence: predicting behavior based on motivation and bias. The cleverest competitors don’t always have the most resources—they just see what others overlook.

Take ten minutes this week to brainstorm your main competitors’ ambitions, beliefs, and routines—jot down anything you know or sense from observation. Think hard about where they might be understating your strengths or ignoring a shift in the environment. Search out their blind spots and ask yourself, 'How could I surprise them—or sidestep a confrontation entirely?' Turning the tables in this way is simpler than people think, and can be your secret weapon.