Why not all sources of risk are equal: preventing rare but severe dangers vs. worrying about every little thing

Medium - Requires some preparation Recommended

With so many lists of what not to eat or do—no sushi, no deli meats, no gardening—you may feel like tiptoeing through daily life, afraid of putting a foot wrong. But not all risks are equal. Some, like Listeria in soft cheeses or smoking during pregnancy, are both rare and extremely dangerous, leading to preterm birth or loss when they occur. Other violations, like one undercooked steak or a skipped prenatal vitamin, have a much lower likelihood of doing harm.

A behavioral ‘risk triage’ approach means you don’t just follow every rule but focus on those activities with high-impact potential: preventing smoking, carefully choosing dairy, using gloves in the garden. You might find, for example, the risk from Mexican queso fresco dramatically outweighs that from your weekly turkey sandwich. By shifting your focus away from every little slip or hypothetical risk, you reduce constant worry and channel your energy where it matters most—toward genuine prevention, not perfectionism.

This matches findings from behavioral decision science, which show that prioritizing rare but severe, preventable threats produces better outcomes for both peace of mind and real health than trying to eliminate every minor exposure.

Take a minute to write two quick lists: everyday things you’ve worried about (maybe that stray salad or an extra dessert) and rare but truly serious threats (like undercooked meat, smoking, or working with soil bare-handed). Put your energy into learning and minimizing those big, preventable risks rather than fussing over every little slip or possible worry. Let that clarity free up your mind and time for the important stuff, not endless vigilance. Try this prioritization, and feel your anxiety level out.

What You'll Achieve

Let go of excessive daily worry, direct your attention to practical, high-impact prevention, and develop a calmer, more focused mindset regarding health choices.

Prioritize Avoiding Severe, Likely Risks Over Low-Probability Threats

1

Make a Two-Column List: Everyday Warnings vs. Severe, Serious Threats.

Separate routine, small risks (mild nausea, mild diet cheating) from rare but serious dangers (Listeria, smoking, untreated infections).

2

Research the Biggest, Most Preventable Risks in Your Situation.

Look up which risks are both likely and serious for you, not just theoretically possible.

3

Develop Simple Habits to Minimize Those Risks.

Focus your time, mental energy, and routines on these high-impact, real-world threats (e.g., avoiding raw milk, quitting smoking, using tested medications when needed).

Reflection Questions

  • What have you obsessed over that probably poses little actual risk?
  • Are there rare but serious risks you might be overlooking or downplaying?
  • How could distinguishing between these give you more peace and confidence?

Personalization Tips

  • A busy parent checks for food recalls and prioritizes avoiding cheese from unregulated sources instead of worrying about every salad.
  • Someone with a cat skips gardening without gloves, knowing that's a main source of toxoplasmosis.
  • A couple focuses on safe medication for a urinary tract infection rather than agonizing over low-risk foods.
Expecting Better: Why the Conventional Pregnancy Wisdom is Wrong - and What You Really Need to Know
← Back to Book

Expecting Better: Why the Conventional Pregnancy Wisdom is Wrong - and What You Really Need to Know

Emily Oster
Insight 6 of 8

Ready to Take Action?

Get the Mentorist app and turn insights like these into daily habits.