Balance your biases to make better decisions.


  1. Look up the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers.
    Confront yourself that even though you can't see it, there is a failure.

  2. Regain your skepticism.
    Consider it a pure chance at first if you think you have found a pattern. Find a mathematician and have the data statistically tested if it seems too good to be true.

  3. Question the crowd.
    As the novelist W. Somerset Maugham put it: “If 50 million people say something foolish, it is still foolish.”

  4. Forget about the costs you’ve already paid.
    No matter how much you have already spent, only your estimation of future costs and benefits will be considered.

  5. Refuse free offers.
    Marketing uses Reciprocity in a way that they give you something first and then ask you to donate or to pay for something in exchange for their offer.

  6. Seek disconfirming evidence.
    Write down your main beliefs and try to find contradicting information.

  7. Take into account the possible authority influence on you when making a decision.
    Consider which authorities might be influencing your decision-making. Do your best to challenge them when you come across one.


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