Do not rely solely on intuition.

Your intuition may be correct most of the time, but relying solely on it when making decisions can result in negative consequences. Better safe than sorry—always supplement your gut feelings with hard fact.


  1. Understand why your intuition alone is not reliable.
    Your intuition typically draws conclusions from base-rate information, which is the general, generic information you have on a subject. However, the general information on any subject is not always applicable to the specific decision you need to make.

  2. Consider all other information available before making your mind up about anything.
    Keep in mind that this extra information is not always readily available.
    For example, let’s say you see a person reading The New York Times on the subway. You are asked to consider which of the two options is more likely to be accurate about this person: she has a Ph.D., or she does not have a college degree. Using your intuition, you would probably say she has a Ph.D. However, in this situation, the fact that she is riding the subway is the information to be considered—the second option is more likely to be accurate since more non-graduates than PhDs ride the subway.


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